Scenarios are “...an internally consistent view of what the future might turn out to be - not a forecast, but one possible future outcome” (M. Porter, 1985: Competitive Advantage. Free Press, New York). They are thus images of the future that provide a rough and yet consistent illustration of the basic development possibilities for an area – large or small - of interest, and which can therefore be used as a basis for planning. They do not focus on what will happen, but on what might happen.
Scenarios have proven to be a particularly beneficial instrument in those areas where developments cannot be forecast, owing either to their high range of uncertainty, their complexity, their susceptibility to interference, or their dependence on human decisions. The water sector in Lima is such a complex system, interconnecting natural, technical, political and social components. Within the LiWa project, scenarios are developed to build a range of possible futures in the water sector by the year 2040. In addition, scenario building is also used to promote participation and communication between stakeholders in Lima, i.e. representatives of the local water utility, public authorities, civil society and scientists. The inclusion of different viewpoints helps in defining assumptions and driving forces and assessing interdependences.
The following steps are typically used in a scenario building process:
1. Problem framing and definition of boundary conditions
2. Identification of driving forces (descriptors)
3. Formulation of possible developments of the descriptors (sub-scenarios)
4. Evaluation of descriptor interdependence
5. Construction of consistent scenarios
6. Analysis of consequences and discussion of alternative interventions
In several local workshops moderated by ZIRN of the
University of Stuttgart, the main factors (or driving forces or
descriptors) that influence the water sector by the year 2040 were
identified and some potential developments in the future are formulated.
The final scenarios are some consistent combinations of the descriptors
and their sub-scenarios. To ensure internal consistency of the scenarios,
the LiWa project uses the cross-impact balance analysis (CIB) to generate
scenarios. CIB includes the systematic evaluation
of factor interdependencies using a qualitative concept of cross-impact judgements.
Using the tool “Scenario Wizard” (free download at www.cross-impact.de), the result of the cross-impact-analyses of the descriptors for Lima were 10 scenarios, selected from a pool of approx. 200.000 possible assumption bundles. The results have been condensed to 6 scenarios:
(click picture to enlarge)
Scenario I: Precaution and overshoot: Lima faces water surplus
An alarmed and capable society takes determined measures. A surprisingly favourable climate change (regarding the local water resources) may lead in the end to more than water deficit compensation. Although this scenario might be unlikely and should be not misunderstood as an appeal to inactivity, it is part of the space of possibilities.
Scenario II: Development without climate change stress
A moderate climate development avoids stress factors (water resource decrease, rural exodus) and issues no severe challenges to capable water governance. The water deficit can be safely compensated and the growing water demand of a prospering metropolis can be satisfied by determined infrastructure measures.
Scenario III: Climate change - a mastered challenge
An alarmed and capable society takes determined measures (organisational, infrastructure, savings) to respond to the challenge of a severe climate change stress (water resource decrease, rural exodus) and narrowly succeeds (although a failure was not impossible).
Scenario IV: Lucky escape: an unprepared society remains free from climate change stress
An inactive society tries its luck. No determined measures are taken to improve the water supply and to prepare for climate change. A positive climate development justifies the policy of inaction to some extent, but it leaves Lima behind with its unsolved home-made water problems.
Scenario V: Climate stress meets governance-disaster
An inactive society with unprepared water governance faces the cruelty of a severe climate change. Decreasing water resources, rural exodus and a neglected infrastructure combine to a desperate situation. This scenario marks the worst case of the LiWa scenario set. No final judgement was made so far whether it should be considered also as the non-surprise/trend scenario.
Scenario VI: The tragedy of isolated measures: Investment program in an adverse environment
In this scenario the water governance actors divide up into an active and an inactive part. While determined infrastructure measures are taken, other fields remain untreated and fail to back the undertaken measures with a supporting background.
For the second phase of the LiWa project, the scenarios will undergo a further review procedure and inform the quantitative water supply simulations of the project and provide a general framework for evaluating the possible performance of different measures to improve the future water supply of Lima.
Links: www.cross-impact.de (Download CIB Guidelines and ScenarioWizard)
Contact: Christian D. León, Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle, Hannah Kosow; E-Mail: zirn@lima-water.de
